Manheim Index Climbs 0.7% in Early October as Wholesale Inventory Shrinks
Wholesale used-vehicle values stopped sliding in early October, but the reason matters: supply shrank, not demand. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 0.7% from September to 207.4 through Oct. 15, putting it 2.2% above the same point in October 2025, according to Cox Automotive’s mid-month report.
That year-over-year gain comes with a caveat. Jonathan Gregory, Cox Automotive’s senior director of economic and industry insights, said part of it reflects an unusually weak October 2025 comparison, when values had corrected sharply from tariff-driven highs.
Strip out the seasonal and mix adjustments — the index accounts for vehicle mix, mileage, and predictable seasonal swings — and the picture is softer. Unadjusted wholesale prices fell 2% in the first half of October, steeper than the roughly 1.5% full-month decline Cox Automotive typically sees for October. Values were lower than September across every major segment on an unadjusted basis.
Wholesale days’ supply fell to 28.2 days as of Oct. 15, down from 28.7 at the end of September. That narrowed the year-over-year inventory surplus from 2.5 days to about one day. Dealer demand held roughly flat. Sales conversion averaged 54.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from a year earlier.
“The firmer values reflect leaner inventory rather than stronger buying, a more stable footing, but not a buyer-driven recovery,” Gregory said.
The mid-month reading follows a difficult third quarter. The Manheim index dropped below year-ago levels in September for the first time in 2026, which prompted Cox Automotive to cut its year-end projection to a 0.2% gain. Gregory said the early October gains don’t erase that soft stretch, pointing to higher rates and weaker consumer sentiment as pressures that remain.
EV values within the index slipped 0.7% from September, even as the EV sub-index stayed 6.8% above a year earlier. The non-EV index rose 0.7% from September and was up 1.3% year over year. Gregory attributed the EV softness to a growing flow of off-lease units hitting the market. By segment, compact cars led with a 5.6% year-over-year gain and midsize cars turned positive, while luxury vehicles edged below last year’s level and pickups stayed soft.
Financing costs are part of the backdrop. Interest paid over the life of a typical loan now totals about $10,100 on a new vehicle and $10,900 on a used one — up 79% and 96% respectively from 2019, according to Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Weekly Summary. Including financing, the all-in cost of buying a vehicle has risen 37% for new and 43% for used since 2019, outpacing the roughly 30% rise in vehicle prices alone. Average used-vehicle down payments have fallen to nearly zero percent of a typical loan.
The full October Manheim index is due Nov. 6.
Sources
- Manheim Index Rises 0.7% in Early October as Wholesale Supply Tightens — autobodynews.com
- Auto Market Weekly Summary — coxautoinc.com